Two films that have zero chance in the Oscars race but which make a good case for how the Oscar Nominations can also give a boost to films sitting external to the larger discussions.
Cyrano is a film that suffered greatly from being postponed multiple times during the pandemic. When it finally did release the advertising campaign was largely forgotten and neutralized and very few realized it was actually out in theaters. Add into this mix a problematic advertising campaign that largely misled in the kind of film this is- some, including myself, didn’t even realize it was a musical lete alone a shakesperean type love story based on a theaterical production- and you’ve got a recipe for Cyrano being woefully overlooked by audiences and voters.
Which is a shame, because it is genuinely very good. It is a love story, but its an unconventional one filled with some wonderful twists and turns and great on screen chemistry. While the trailers puzzling emphasized Peter Dinklages’ Game of Thrones persona, his actual performance is a subdued and complex character study of someone caught in the throes of love, self refection, forgiveness and existential crisis, the perfect themes to inspire great and memorable songs (courtesy of the National). If you go into this knowing what it is chances are good it just might sweep you off your feet in some rather wonderful and unexpected ways
Lunana: a Yak in the Classroom is a film from Bhutan contending in the International Feature category, and it is genuinely one of the most uplifting stories of 2021. It’s sweet, deeply affecting and refreshingly simple in its approach, following a teacher discontent with city life and looking for a change as he relocates temporarily to a remote school high in the mountains of the Bhutan countryside. The Yak is symbolic and also very much real (and adorable). Yak dung is also symbolic and very much real. The film also operates, in a symbolic and very real way, as a love letter to educators. This should be mandatory viewing for the many teachers who have tirelessly and faithfully navigated a pandemic. Its both inspiring and therapeutic and a great reminder of the power the teacher-student relationship holds.
The Oscar Story:
Not much to muse about here. The lone nomination for Cyrano is in Costume Design, a category that is likely to be won by Cruella with Dune in second spot. Lunana has the single nomination for International Feature, a cateory already dominated by front runner Drive My Car, expected second place contender Flee, and the passionate swell of support for The Worst Person in the World. It is merely occupying space there. But that doesn’t mean these are not films very much worth seeing. There is a world where, had Cyrano’s release fared better, it could have competed in a few categories including Best Acter, and the strength of Lunana just shows how strong that category is this year.
On the surface this appears to be a stereotypical sports drama all about the power of the American dream. It doesn’t take long for King Richard to reveal itself as something decidedly different. It is, at its heart, a family drama following the trials and successes of Venus and Serena Williams as they grow up in the complicated shadow of their fatther “King” Richard, who frames the real interest of this story. The film is a tad too long but there is no denying the rich subtext and the dynamism of the story and the performances, including particular challenges they faced as persons of color. The tennis matches are really well shot and edited bringing the larger narrative arc to an apporopriate climatic and cinemtaic flouriish, but its the simple scenes of dialogue that carry the films decided emotional punch, with Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis sharing formidable space in both lead and supporting roles.
The Oscar Story:
It feels odd to suggest a Will Smith led serious drama dropped quietly and without much in the way of attention, fan fare, or viewership. This seemed to indicate the early fate of this anticipated Oscar contender. I was hard pressed to find much of anyone refrencing this film in early conversations as having much shot at all in multiple nomination categories.
And then Will Smith started to steamroll his way through the greater awards season winning top Actor nods and simataneously carrying this film’s campaign on his broad shoulders with dynamic awards speeches and plenty of interviews (he genuinely is one of the hardest working people in Hollywood). Fast foward and we are now looking at nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor (Will Smith), Supporting Actress (Aunjaneu Ellis), Original Song (Be Alive), and Original Screenplay, No matter how you shake this down, that kind of representation means you can’t overlook this film contending in any of the categories, even, shockingly so, Best Picture.
Now here me out. While there is a path forward for King Richard I don’t think it is winning Best Picture. However, I don’t think its a stretch to say the film could steal potential votes from the two films currently battling it out for that win (Coda and The Power of the Dog). Given how drastically different these two films are and how this represents a vast contrast of sensibilities within the voting body, the real question then becomes which film is likely to suffer more from the powerful presence of King Richard. That is difficult to say. The Power of the Dog will gain most of its votes from insiders who believe it to be the kind of high and prestigous art film that “should” win Best Picture. Those same people (read: Film Twitter) have been emerging as a bi sour over Coda’s last minute surge, describing it as (to borrow the words of one voice I read) fluffy and superficial sentimentality wrapped up as populous fare. On the flipside is the seemingly larger populous of voters who found The Power of the Dog to be cold, dour, and distant and who seem much more ready to embrace something positive, uplifting, and crowd pleasing. Enter Coda which genuinely seems to fit the bill. For the record, this is precisely why early analysis quesitoned the ability of The Power of the Dog to contend early on. That cold, dour, distant feeling didn’t seem to fit with the year we all just waded through in 2021. It would feel like dumping more fuel on an already and still burning fire. Something positive and uplifting and celebratory is the tonic appraently many people seem to be desiring right now.
So where does King Richard fit into all this? On one hand it is not out of place at all in the category of Best Picture winners. It strikes that balance between high art and popular fare and so I could see some voters, out of disdain for Coda (which feels absurd and mindboggling even to write… in my opinion Coda is both a geuine work of art and a film that one would think is impossible to hate), voting for King Richard in the number two spot just to push back against its embrace. Its also entirely possible that those who are enthusiastic about Coda will be primed to select King Richard in that number 2 slot as well. This is where that preferrential ballot could have genuine impact on the race in one way or the other. It will be interesting to watch.
Far less controversial is the expected win for Will Smith. If there is a sure thing this season it is in the Lead Actor category. Once upon a time it was thought that this was Benedict Cumberbatch’s to lose for his method turn in The Power of the Dog. Appreciation for that film and his performance has become more and more muted as awards season has pushed on with some even placing Andrew Garfield in that second spot for Tick Tick… Boom, another suprise on nomination morning. It feels safe to say Smith is far ahead in this race and that many believe he is long overdue.
In terms of Supporting Actress, while general consensus has Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) locked in for an expected win it also feels fair to say that Aunjaneu Ellis is occupying that number 2 spot over Judi Dench (Belfast), Kristen Dunst (The Power of the Dog), and Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter). Original song seems a fairer place to predict a win for King Richard though, with Dos Oruguitas from Encanto being its primary compeition.
Perhaps the most intriguing race when it comes to King Richard is Original Screenplay. Once you filter through the narrative of Kenneth Branagh’s possible make up vote for failing to secure a real spot in the Best Picture race (he is beloved within the Acadamy and has been hard at work making the rounds with interviews and publicity) along with the expectation that Jane Campion will take the Directors spot, the possible upset by Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza in either Director or Original Screenplay actually makes an even more compelling case for King Richard sneaking in quietly from the periphary and making some real noise in this category. If you had to hedge your bets on a possible surprise win this would be a fair category to do it in.
It could be described that Licorice Pizza’s rise and fall in the Oscar race was as brief and fleeting as a Winnnipeg summer. It emerged as an early critical darling powered by the presence of Paul Thomas Anderson. Back when Belfast occupied frontrunner status some pundits thought the release of this much anticipated coming of age romantic comedy could give the Oscars an actual race, especially given the 1970’s Hollywood setting and the pedigree of the Dirctor. That was before the Power of the Dog started sweeping awards season and long before Coda had its timely, last minute surge.
Licorice Pizza did face some controversy, which might have played into its rapid fall in favor. This includes the age gap that exists between the two main characters (the “older than he is” guy is turning 16, and the younger than she is woman is 25). Not everyone appreciated this dynamic, although for me the way PTA uses this age difference is very intentional, writing the story around these polarizing aged perspectives. Much more publicized was what some see as a misplaced “asian”related joke. Again, I would argue that the joke has been misconstrued when seen in context of the script- it is designed to elicit a degree of awkwardness while accenting the sheer absurdity of it “in its time”.
Controversies aside I did fall for this story and their relationship, which shines in its charming nature and challenging insights. There is an innocence here that feels welcom and compelling in the midst of reigning cynicsm. It meanders with the characters’ back and forth pursuit of life and each other, and it is packed full of the kind of subtle nuances and narrative touches that make this ripe for rewatches. In many ways this is a world building exercise that uses the unsettled space of the complicated character dyamics to draw rich insights into the human condition.
The Oscar Story:
If Best Picture is highly unlikely the films nominations for Original Screenplay and Directing are more compelling to consider. If, and this is a big if given she is all but a sure lock in the category, The Power of the Dog fell enough out of favor in the weeks leading up to voting there is good reason to think that PTA could slide into that spot as the number 2. I wouldn’t count out Kenneth Branagh entirely in the same scenario either as there is still love for his passion project (Belfast) and there is a chance some will see this as his time. Who knows if he makes something like Belfast again. But PTA I think is a name you can’t overlook in the Directing category, and the remnants of that general anticipation for Licorice Pizza could kick in to elevate him in a category that also features Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) and Ryusuke Hamaguch (Drive My Car)
Original Screenplay is probably the category he stands a better chance at winning. It seems like this is where Branagh will get his due, but there is a good case one could make for PTA edging this one out. There are some that have thrown out The Worst Person in the World as possibly getting a passion vote, but I think while that passionate support is there the film remains firmly in the 4th or 5th spot. I would place Zach Baylin (King Richard) ahead given its Best Picture nomination and expected win for Will Smith, maybe even ahead of PTA. But PTA has a lot of support, the film does celebrate hollywood, and anticipation for the film is still somewhat there in the collective consciousness.
Del Toro, a self professed favorite Director of all time for me personally, is no stranger to awards season. It wasn’t that long ago that Shape of Water defied the odds, perhaps acknowledging the Director more than the film itself, winning Best Picture. Oddly enough Nightmare Alley is the more accessible film, especially given it is a remake of a familiar title. However, no one, or at least very few predicted Nightmare Alley to earn a spot in this years nominations, save for maybe Production. So when it managed to crack the Best Picture line up it left many in a state of shock and surprise. I for one was elated. Not because I think it has a chance at winning Best Picture, rather because of my love for both the film and the Director.
The original version is a 1947 film Directed by Edmund Goulding. In comparison Gouldings version is far more didactic in nature trading visuals for a straightforward, practically minded, conversationally driven character lead film noir. It is a very good film to be sure, despite it originally debutng as a flop with the box office and critics, with the unfolding mystery and the twists and turns and the black and white lending it a classic feel. What Del Toro does, and what makes a strong argument for it having a reason to exist, is trade on the didactic nature and practical film noir approach for a more decidedly visual and neo-noirish approach that really immerses the story in an imagined world. This world builidng exercise is a big part of what sets Del Toro apart in general, and here he uses it to tease not only the darker edges of the story to the surface, but also the story’s spiritual focus and its existential concern. The film is big on imagery and metaphor and uses this to really explore the essential tensions that the original merely tabled, especially where it comes to themes of forgiveness, restitution, and retribution. I genuinely rank this among his best, and its a film that I think rewards multiple viewings, especially in order to appreciate the second of two phenomenal performances by Bradley Cooper this year (the second being Licorice Pizza).
The Oscar Story:
In total Nightmare Alley gained four nominations- Best Picture, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design. The below the line categories are actually a pretty strong representation and its hard not to think that the Best Picture nom will give it the boost it needs to walk away with something. It won’t win Best Picture, and early signs point to Cruella being the popular choice in Costume Design (Cruella is also contending for Makeup and Hairstyling against the arguable front runner The Eyes of Tammy Faye). Out of cinematography and Production Design I would say the category it has the best chance at upsetting is Production Design. I said elswhere that this is most likely where I see West Side Story earning a win to anchor its likely Best Supporting Actress award (for Ariana DeBose), but don’t be suprised if Nightmare Alley throws Oscar pools, predictions and bets for a loop here. I just think, espescially now that Dune took the trophy home in the cinematographers voting branch this past Tuesday, that this is Dune’s to lose, and if it did lose it would be to The Power of the Dog, another likely place for the acadamy to support the expected win for Jane Campion in the Directors spot. One caveat to both of these categories as well- Del Toro’s decision to re-release the film in black and white, which I haven’t had the chance to see yet, could also pay dividends here, especially since response to the black and white version has been overwhelmingly positive.
Late in the season Amazon quietly released Being the Ricardos, a film detailing an especially harrowing time for Hollywood stars Lucille Ball and Desi Amaz. Most of the discussion around this faithful, biographical depiction of the famed couple, centered on the year 1952, surrounded Nicole Kidman’s take on Ball. A few had faith she could successfully pull off the transformation, many remained skeptics. When the film did arrive it failed to make a real mark earning favorable to middling response despite, in my opinion, boasting a strong script, an understated period piece aesthetic, and strong performances. It’s a patient film but one that demonstrates a good deal of control and intentional restraint uderneath the surface of its suspected, and in some eyes failed, drive for popular appeal.
The Oscar Story:
I have been making the argument that the film has been vastly overlooked and underrated for a good while, so when it had a stronger than expected showing with the Oscar nominations I was excited. This includes nominations in Best Acor (Javier Bardem), Best Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons) and Best Actress (Nicole Kidman). Bardem has zero chance at winning being largely in the shadows of Will Smith who is predicted to finally get his due. Simmons is equally out of the contest given Troy Kotsur laying a strong claim to that front runner status for his turn in Coda and Kodi Smit-McPhee holding strong in that second spot for his turn in The Power of the Dog. I believe Kotsur will take this as McPhee’s supporting performance I think represents the films popularity in other categories more than it does an exceptional or even visibly memorable performance.
That leaves Kidman. Kidmans story gets more interesting when you consider The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Oscars 2022 Spotlight: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Even if you haven’t seen the flm it’s likely you’ve heard of it because of Jessica Chastain who has been out there like crazy talking up this film leading up to and since its release. She of course plays Faye herself, and this film is largely a result of her persistant desire to get this film made. This was her passion project and she played a very hands on role in the Producers chair. She wanted to make it because she felt it was a difficult story that had something to say about the struggles women have faced and continue to face in society and in the industry. In researching Faye she found both a person and a story that has been largely misunderstood and misrepresented by the media and she wanted to bring the true story to light. And I personally think it is a wonderful biographical story that features not just a great pairing in Chastain and Garfield (the role he should be getting attention for rather than Tick Tick Boom) but some really excellent use of story structure which helps dive underneath the caricatures and bring some important thematic and spiritual tensions to the surface.
The Oscar Story
Unlike Being the Ricardos triple feat, The Eyes of Tammy Faye only has the single nom in the above the line categories- Lead Actress for Jessica Chastain. However, what makes this an interesting race is the inclusion of Tammy Faye in Makeup and Hairstyling. Don’t underestimate what this below the line nomination says about Chastains “visible” transformation, an added aspect of her performance that could, and some think should carry her over the finish line and earn her the Oscar. I do think Kidman’s performance offers her some decent competition and certainly in its own way checks a lot of those Oscar boxes, but Chastain’s boots on the ground appraoch paired with that readily recognizable makeup I think will pay the necessary dividends come Oscar night.
Even a small awareness of film releases in 2021 likely means you have heard of Denis Villeneuve’s ambitious take on a classic work deemed to be unadaptable (save for those who actually deem Lynch’s original a success). As the story goes, the acclaimed Director kept waiting around for someone to take it on and when no one did he finally decided to take it on himself.
The result is a film that is celebrated for its visuals and somewhat mixed on the adaptation front. One could argue this is mostly thanks to his decision to follow the source material a bit too faithffully- the problem is the source material not him. What is most certainly true is that Dune did what Nolan’s Tenet could not, which was welcome people back to theaters in light of the pandemic woes. This is no small feat for a film that boasts real art house sensibilities and that, given the adaptation was split in two halves, functions without a true conclusion. For my money, while he does misstep at points by following the source material a bit too faithfully, the intention one can see behind the decision to leave out and streamline some story points, the character arcs he chooses to bring to the surface and accentuate, and his very deliberate choice to tell this story without a lot of dialogue, without all of the technical lingo allowing the visuals to do the heavy expositionary work in its place, pays real dividends. This along with Villeneuve’s incredible visual imagination make this blockbuster one of the best of the year, fusing entertainment with thoughtful commentary and substanstive ideas.
The Oscar Story:
If not for the egregious miss in the best Director category, arguably one of the most non-sensicle and controversial outcomes of the nominations, Dune would be sharing the nomination haul with the current leader (the Power of the Dog) and, in my opinion, would be seriousy in the conversation right now for not only best Director but best Film as well. As it stands, the Best Picture nom is very likely inconsequential, and in a cruel twist of fate the miss in the best Diretor category could leave its noinations in below the line categories entirely vulnerable. For as much as supporters of The Power of the Dog are beginning to fear it might walk away with one or two wins on the night, Director being the only sure one, the irony is the years biggest film is facing a similar fate.
One category that will prove interesting to watch is cinematography as much hinges here on whether its even possible for The Power of the Dog to walk away with two or less wins on the night given it is the nomination leader. If it loses Best Picture, which at this point appears it would be to Coda, shoring up wins in subsequent categories might be its consolation prize. Neither Nightmare Alley nor Tragedy of Macbeth are really competing in this category which leaves West Side Story, arguably a distant third, and the two nomination leaders fighting it out for first and second spot.
While Cruella has been cleaning up in the costume category leaving Dune largely in its shadow, this leaves makeup and hairstyling, a category most believe will go to The Eyes of Tammy Faye, original score, film editing, adapted screenplay, production design, sound, and visual effects. Of these categories original score feels most in the bag, Hans Zimmer has been very much in the spotlight over the course of the awards season. Production Design I think will be one of two categories, along with an expected win for actress in a supporting role (Ariana DeBose), where the acadamy will recognize West Side Story.
I do feel fairly confident in its chances at winning Visual Effects however. Marvel doesn’t typcally fare well in this category and the only real question then is where, or if, the acadamy wants to acknowledge No Time to Die. This could be a place to do it along with Sound, making this an interesting race between those two films. Adapted Screenplay I believe is a two horse race between Coda and The Power of the Dog. It’s entirely possible, according to some pundits, that whichever film wins there wins Best Picture, so that is definitely a category to watch closely on awards night.
Film Editing seems to be a natural place to honor Dune, but the biggest question there is King Richard’s expected win in the Best Actor category (Will Smith). If acadamy voters don’t want to leave King Richard with just a single win, and it does seem voters do like the film, it would most likely vote for it here.
Dune is an intresting film to consider given all these possible scenarios. Fascinating to considrer it within the shared narrative of the Power of the Dog as well, given they are the two nomination leaders. The miss in Directing, for as mindboggling as that is (especially given the Best Picture nod), could prove to be a motivating factor as well. One reason a film misses can be the assumption that the film was not in danger of losimg that nominated spot, thus some giving their vote to another film that needs it. If this was the case with Dune then giving it the win in subsequent categories could be seen as a way to make up for this error in judgement. Usually this many nominations means the acadamy is favorable towards the film and have seen the film, so this, along with the possibility that voters assumed they would get their chance next year with Part 2 (this doesn’t explain the Best Picture nom though), seems to me to make the most sense. In any case I do hope it walks away with a few wins on the night and anticipate Part 2 hopefully leading to a bonafide win for Villeneuve next year. He deserves it.
Continuing this week with some Oscar reflections, today I wanted to shed light on the documetary Flee, which is up for Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and International Feature Film.
Directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen, the official entry from Denmark is a documentary that mixes animated and live action sequences as it tells the story of Amin, an unaccompanied minor who lives in Denmark but immigated from Afghanistan. At 36 years the film tells his story by way of a conversation between Amin and a close friend where we find him confiding in him by telling his story out loud for the first time. Embedded into this are secrets from his past which bear real weight on his present, making it important for him to finally find a way to articulate this past in a way that allows him to deal with the present and find a way forward. It very much uses the physical journey to shed light on the internal one, highlighting issues of identity, acceptance and belonging. It is a simple story but it is also a powerful and important one that really celebrates Aminâs courageous willingness to tell his story and to finally make it real.
The Oscar Story: The big story here is of course the filmâs presence in all three of these categories. While this is historic in and of itself, the very notion that it could possibly walk away with awards in all three categories would be truly historical should it happen.
How likely is it that this would happen? I would say highly unlikely. But the sheer idea does make this one exciting to watch. The greater interest is pondering which category it stands the best shot at winning. This is where things get difficult.
Animated Feature Dethroning Encanto from the top spot in animated feature would be a challenge (and despite advocates of Mitchells and the Machines believing it has a shot, I think this is more a dream than reality. But hey, the Osars always need to throw in a couple surprises). Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon fill out the other two spots in this category (yes, although Luca is Pixar technically this means Disney is dominating here with three nominations), and of those two Raya has been cited by pundits to hold the number two spot.
With that said, there are some quietly picking Flee in that number 2 spot, and while Encanto appears to be so far ahead here and represents the familiar and popular pick (I personally have no qualms here as i think it is the best animated film to release in 2021), there is a chance Flee could pull the upset simply based on its clear representation in the other two categories. If nothing else this proves it has its fans and that people have indeed seen it, and that bodes well in its favor.
Documentary Feature The fiercest competition here is Summer of Soul, generally accepted as the clear front runner and most likely winner. And deservedly so, itâs a phenomenal film and the Acadamy does like music films in this category. What makes this category intriguing is that when you look at the other nominations there is no clear number 2. All three of the other noms- Ascension, Attica, Writing with Fire, occupy similar space in that they are generally respected but not necessarily widely seen nor universally embraced as potential competitors in the race. This leaves Flee wide open to make a legitimate run at dethroning Summer of Soul
International Feature Film Similar to documentary, international film sports a clear front runner (Japanâs Drive My Car) with three other nominations vying for that second spot- Italyâs The Hand of God, Bhutanâs Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, and Norwayâs The Worst Person in the World). One central dfference here is The Worst Person in the World did manage to snag a nomination in the original screenplay category, which might seem inconsequential but does carry some weight in regards to its possible contending here. It also has passionate support (although i personally find it overrated). When you consider that Drive My Car also occupies a slot in the Best Picture line up, one that I donât think it has a chance of winning, its hard to think that the well regarded film wouldnât be given international film in its place.
So what to do with this film then? Is it possible that these historic noms could actually walk away with nothing? That seems equally hard to fathom. If I had to make a best guess I am probably leaning towards its best chance being Documentary. However, my own âgo for brokeâ prediction in the animated feature category (just to offset the Mitchells and the Machines enthusiasts) is willing to at least suggest the scenario of Flee quietly sneaking in and upseting the Disney juggernaut. There is an irony here though given that I think the film is most deserving as an international feature and documentary and least deserving as an animated feature. The animation is fine but itâs nothing exceptional, and even arguably a bit blandly drawn. It works really well as a compliment to the live action bits, and it doesnât need to be flashy given the strength of the story and its focus on the material and the structure, but that just accentuates its strengh as an inventive documentary and strong international feature.
It’s Oscar week. Which means ramping up the pontificating and predictions for anyone who still cares.
I’ve been on record plenty of times in the past defending the relevance of the ceremony and its importance for the industry (and yes, I know I am Canadian, but it’s near impossible to escape the shadow of the American film industry, and the canadian film industry operates a bit differently none the less, so that’s a discussion for another day). Historically, the Oscars have played a significant role in shining a spotlight on smaller films and smaller studios that often otherwise would not be seen by a wider audience, even as this same history sees a long standing and existing tension between the equal need to showcase films that people have seen for the sake of viewership numberes and the related ad revenue. When it comes to this tension this year has been no different, seeing the Acadamy (or the Network that currently owns the rights to the Oscars- ABC) attempting to stave off the continued ratings decline with some questionable, and at times bizarre decisions (see the the popular film category for example, or the decision to bump below the line categories to a pre oscar ceremony) when it comes to the live broadcast this Sunday night. Of course the ceremony will tell the fuller story in terms of potential dividends and/or further losses, but at present it feels like they are successfully earning the scorn of those who don’t care about the show while further isolating those who do.
Now, I am far from an authority on the Oscars. I do however spend time over the year listening to awards show podcasts, perusing articles and think pieces, and generally following the season as it unfolds. And of course I have a deep interest in seeing the nominated films while also engaging in vibrant dialogue (which sadly is nothing like it used to be) regarding “would have, could have, should have” preferences. So at the very least I can speak something to that. Which is what I thought i would do this week, spotlighting some films, Directors, performances, technicals, that have earned a nomination along with some that didn’t who could be said to have been in the discussion along the way.
Beginning with a personal ranking of the Best Picture nominees, from least to best with one caveat- I have not yet been able to see Drive My Car so that won’t be represented here, and followed by my prediction for what will win and what I think has the best shot at an upset. This year there are 10 Nominees in the Best Picture category:
My Personal Ranking of the 2022 Oscar Best Picture Nominees
9. Don’t Look Up
8. The Power of the Dog
7. King Richard
6. West Side Story
5 Coda
4. Nightmare Alley
3. Dune
2. Licorice Pizza
1. Belfast
Licorice Pizza actually ranks higher on my best of 2021 list, but for me personally, when I think of a Best Picture winner I am thinking about a film that successfully represents the year thematically or through the storyline of its production and release and cultural footprint. I think Belfast seems to fit really well as a film that speaks to some of the challenges of the past year (from its emphasis on struggle, division, political turmoil, family, togetherness and isolation, its sense of home and its sense of place, culture, diaspora and war). It is also a film that speaks to hope and to this notion of returning to that which we cherish and which affords us our identity. Or at least to an understanding that home is where we are together. The story of Ireland (and this is a true love letter to Ireland) is one which I think can have much to say to the present struggles in Ukraine of course, but it also feels apt for the experience of the pandemic. Sure, the film didn’t do great at the box office (very few films did in 2021, including streaming films like The Power of the Dog), but it did have the benefit of positive early buzz and it is the kind of film that is able to translate across boundaries and age brackets with a sense of optimism and imagination. It’s the kind of crowd pleasing drama that I think can bring people together, and a Best Picture nod could be the perfect opportunity to celebrate this.
If there is a knock on the film it is that too many critics have been comparing this to Roma, of which a byproduct has been the tendency to then measure this against those qualities, something it can’t live up to because it it in fact a very different kind of film despite sharing the black and white aesthetic. Very few hate the film, but a growing number at this stage in the game seem to be questioning whether it is truly deserving of a best picture win. It did hold the spot of frontrunner for quite a while, but most pundits believe it no longer has a genuine shot at the big award, especially given some of the below the line nominations it was shut out from. But if it somehow does win I would be quite happy with the result.
What will win: The Power of the Dog
When Belfast was dethroned a film that early predictors didn’t think would threaten found a way to do just that. It has been sweeping its way through awards season thus far in multiple categories, and while its not unusual for a dominating film to lose out at the Acadamy, especially when its not that accessible to a wider audience (the Oscars work on a preferential ballot and thus the DGA and PGA winners are often key indicators of what a preferential ballad might bring), its still difficult to vote against at this point in the game. It has a lot of money behind it (Netflix) and while it has many a detractor its supporters are a passionate bunch. It also has the strength of Nomadlands win from 2021 to play off of in its favor, a less accessible indie that steamrolled the season along with taking the major prize. I personally would love to see an upset here for a few reasons- I am not a fan of the film, I think thematically it would be a dire and quite confusing representation of the year in film given its emphasis on the depravity of its story and characters, and while it does seem inevitable that if it doesn’t happen this year it will soon (given Netflix’s mad obsession with winning Best Picture and the sheer amount of money they are putting towards that) I do fear a Netflix win creating a snowball effect where they will dominate the nominations even more than they do now. Unlike other big money representations such as Disney, they have the ability to take over multiple categories including animated, international, and drama). This means that the smaller entities that the Oscars typically helps support will be pushed even further to the margins and have an even harder time competing. But I still do think this is the year Netflix wins.
A Possible Upset: Coda
Much has been written regarding this late stage surge by the unsuspecting Coda. Apple has been pushing their campaign pretty hard and many pundits have been suggesting that its gradually increasing representation in the more recent awards might signal that it will legitimately push for that Best Picture win. All eyes were on the PGA winner, and with Coda taking this spot there is a fairly strong argument one could make for this translating to Oscar night. It’s generally beloved, even more so I think than Belfast despite Belfast being a better representation of the kind of film that wins at the Oscars (or at least one type- this fits I think in the Green Book category). It’s arguably more beloved than The Power of the Dog, something that benefits that preferrential ballot. If Coda does win it would be, I think, a bit of a shock and a bit of an anomaly, but one that I think plenty would more than gladly embrace and praise. It’s a crowd pleaser, and it breaks barriers in terms of representation by shining a spot light on the deaf community. Even if it doesn’t win I’m glad to see it getting the push it deserves.
I was listening to an episode of Kingdom Roots podcast this morning titled Discipling Our Emotions speaking with scholar and theologian Becky Castle Miller, and they were unpacking the recent and revolutionary research on science of “emotions” that surfaced back around 2016 and has since been growing to become the dominant view.
The shift represents a move away from seeing emotions as a list of common feelings shared by the whole of humanity towards an understanding of emotions as cultural constructs which express themselves in diverse ways within different peoples and cultures as part of their distinct context. In other words, while we all feel emotions we don’t all feel emotions the same way. Existing emotions are a window into the cultural constructs that shape us while feelings are a way of giving these emotions meaning.
As I’ve been doing a deeper dive into this idea, perusing the research and reading articles it’s becoming clear to me that this has massive implications not only for how we understand and relate to one another but to how we approach and understand God, the scriptural text and how we apply the cultural context of the text to our own. It can, for example, help us understand how it is that we arrive at gender constructs by way of emotions. It can shed light on how emotions divide us in all manner of ways, and how it is that travelling across cultures requires learning the language of emotion, and how making sense of our own culture, and even oursleves, requires an understanding of our own language of emotion as well. Why and how it is that we feel things differently from within our constructed vantage point. We do not feel emotions in a bubble. Emotional constructs arise from a shared environment and play a massive role in binding people togther based on what we are taught to attach meaning (feeling) to. This should do a couple things- push back on the belief that our “feelings” are normative and should be and/or are common across the whole of humanity, remind us that feelings can be sources of good and bad, and challenge us to see how seeing feeling from emotion as mutual but seperate parts of the equation (as opposed to setting one over the other) can be a way of helping to assess the good and bad within cultural constructions while also freeing us to see emotions as something that can be shaped and reshaped developed and grown with intention.
Apparently she’s deep into work on the relationship between this new science of emotion and our theologies of Christ. Exited to see where that leads đ
The best that can be said of Irish cinema today is that it certainly exists. Even with its strata of âworthyâ and âunworthyâ films, its commercial entertainments and its dark dramas, Irish film at least now produces enough films for there to be such divisions in the first place.
The identity of an Irish cinema by Dr. Harvey OâBrien
Brooklyn, John Crowley’s internationally celebrated Irish film from 2015, features a recognizable and common distinctive among Irish film- the relationship between a longing for a distinctive Irish culture and presence and the reality of it’s prolonged Diaspora. The tension between these two sometimes complimentary and often opposing cultural forces still exists today even as Ireland’s modern cinematic landscape has managed to grow a stronger sense of identity, with some animosity existing between the Irish and Irish-Americans/Canadians (for example) who often lay claim to the idea of Irish heritage. As one writer put it, as this conflict grew, more and more it became an obvious struggle between empire on one side and capitalism on the other.
From famine to war, to civil war to division, from the never ending diaspora and political unrest, we can follow Irelands cinematic story from the arrival of the first Lumiere images, which captured in their way a rare and brief glimpse of optimism and peace, to the present day struggles for national identity, preservation of history and culture and the undying spirit of romanticism and song, Irelands cinematic history holds in its hands the story of a unique people, an influential and important history, and a universal spiritual longing. These early picturesque depictions of the early emergence of the moving image would become an important symbol for Irish cinema, the product of a small island and a modest population. Given how the Potato Famine had displaced its people to foreign territory, the struggle of early Irish cinema would set the tone for years to come, forcing Irish film to depict Ireland from a distance. As these stories evolved, they came to depict the immigrants story somewhere between a love and longing for the homeland and the promise of more prosperous conditions elsewhere. And while the Country continued to struggle on a socio-political level, what is clear today is how important Irish cinema would become to protecting and developing a true Irish heritage. As the Country went so did its cinematic presence, and it becomes clear looking back, and even looking at Ireland today, that where Ireland was able to establish a localized industry and film community, Country and people were also at their strongest.
As John Ford would release one of Ireland’s most defining films (The Quiet Man) in 1952, the rise of television would, as one writer put it, have “a disastrous affect on Irish Identity, combining with the decline of cinema.” And yet, the inspiration of the Irish cinematic story is one that leaves my own Irish-Canadian heritage jealous. As we enter the 1970’s we see a reinvigorated and hard nosed commitment to not let cinema die, and a desire to breathe into it a fresh light on the Irish people and identity. And while Irish Cinema today is a shadow of what, say, American Cinema represents in content and numbers, their conviction to the art form in the face of consistent outside pressures, streaming, and international imports actually stands taller in its relevance. With the pride of cinema comes a pride of Irish heritage and a stronger and more unified Country, something doubly important in a land still divided. The Film Act of 1970 allowed Irish Film to expand and to grow, while the Irish government was one of the first and early adapters of a film tax initiative. The films that emerged from this became what is known as the Irish First Wave, demonstrating a fresh vision for art and Country.
“What all of these New Wave films have in common is their desire to challenge what had gone before them in cinematic terms. These films aggressively debunked stereotypical images of Ireland and Irish people on film and sought to challenge audiences to see Ireland in a different light.”
The future continued (and continues) to have its challenges of course, particularly in the eventual demise of The Irish Film Board in 1987 and the loss of that unifying voice. But the persistence of the Irish people resulted in films like My Left Foot (Jim Sheridan), The Crying Game (Neil Jordan), The Commitments (Alan Parker), all independent Irish products, paving the way for the rebirth of The Irish Film Board in 1993. Fast forward to today and you have an industry that, not unlike the earlier days of Italian cinema, has found a way to grow in genres, proving to leave quite a footprint in animation (Cartoon Saloon) and even in the likes of horror. But the most important undercurrent appears to be this-
“While big-budget international productions keep crews working and are enormously valuable to the country, it is the indigenous industry that is at the heart of creating opportunity and giving skills and experience to Irish producers, directors, writers and crew, telling the stories that emerge from Irish-based talent.”
Cinema plays the role it does precisely because it has the ability to bring people together around these collective stories of identity and form in the way other artforms cannot. Films can hold national identity in one hand and establish that on international soil with the other. As cinema goes, so does Irish identity. And like modern Ukraine, the stronger their identity the stronger Irish Cinema is becoming. It is proving that it doesn’t need to be America in order to succeed, boasting the highest rate of cinema admissions in Europe. It can, simply, be Ireland.
My top 10 Favorite Irish films:
Honorable Mentions: The Secret Scripture (the story of a woman caught in a world dominated by the men and held hostage by both power and institution. It is a period piece and part mystery, and something of a slow burn with beautiful cinematography and memorable characters); Here Before (another slow burn mystery about the mother-daughter bond, this time with notes of horror); Sing Street (an addictive and entertaining coming of age musical and love story from the writers of Once and Begin Again); The Commitments (soul music, the slums of Dublin, this gets into the nitty gritty of what makes the place, once upon a time, tick)
(Ranked in decending order)
The Secret of Roan Irish The films folktale nature captures the spirit of Irish storytelling with its mix of history, myth and the relationship between humanity and creation. Itâs rare to encounter family films such as this, which is told in the old ways of lore and esteemed in mystery meant to illuminate the hopeful light. This is where the unexpected can break into our reality.
The Breadwinner Honest, raw and deeply revealing, this is the kind of animated film that can draw together young and old with its mix of memorable characters, its emphasis on real world history and conflict, and its willingness to find beauty in the dark places without glossing over the tough stuff of life, particularly a story like this that sheds light on particular cultural hardship.
Song of the Sea A powerful exploration of the spaces in which grief and sorrow form necessary parts of our lives and how we often work to cover up these necessary emotions. Even more so about how these things play into the life of a child and a childlike perspective. Here Irish Tradition meets experience as a modern reflection on timeless Irish symbolism and culture given a universal application.
Wild Mountain Thyme One of a handful of films here that immerse you not just in the folklore but in the countryside itself. Culture and spirit shine here in this charming and emotional Irish love tale, bringing together a rich art of storytelling, romanticism, metaphor, song, and poetry.
The Secret of Kells As the film suggests, âeverything in this life is mist.â The mist is a metaphor for what clouds the truth of ourselves and this world, and it is this darkness that allows the light to illuminate the necessary knowledge. I have often considered this first and foremost a Christmas film with its reigning image of the coming light that brings hope to the world and the promise of God with us, and it fleshes this out in such an amazing way through the relationship between adult and child.
Hunger There is a pivotal scene in this film where a simple conversation affords us a break in the brutality of it all. It is a scene that offers us a chance to ponder all that has happened up to this point, and to be sure it is one of the greatest cinematic moments in history. Dealing with questions of freedom, faith, oppression it ponders where the line between dying and living, suicide or willful survival, gets drawn and how these things create opposition within ourselves. It uses this to draw out, in the larger context of the film, the two polarizing sides within Irish history. Itâs a tough watch but oh so rewarding.
Calvary âForgiveness is underratedâ. Whether one chooses to qualify this as a faith based film, it is simply undeniable that it is one of the most powerful âfilmsâ ever made. As the film suggests, the only darkness greater than our refusal or inability to forgive one another is our inability to receive forgiveness and to forgive ourselves.
Belfast Up for an Academy Award this year Belfast is one of the most vibrant and expressive (and lovely and humorous) explorations of Irish history, culture and people put to film. It is not only visually creative with its mix of black and white and color, panning shots, and intimate captures, it is deeply personal. This is, much like Brooklyn, a film that faces the conflict of the Diaspora head on, and in doing so becomes a genuine love letter to Ireland itself.
Wolfwalkers One of my all time favorite animated films Wolfwalkers walks us through the history of colonization while recovering an ancient, Irish spirituality that still exists and persists underneath the christianization. Itâs easy to see how the two can come together as a uniquely Irish identity and language, and the film attempts to imagine this ancient character coming alive in the present day in a revitalized Irish landscape. Stunning, rich, and beautiful.
Brooklyn This film continues to hold a special place for me. Itâs a coming of age drama that explores the nature of change and transition. As it follows a young woman moving from Ireland to Brooklyn it also becomes about how it is that we are shaped by the idea of home. Home is something she both leaves behind and also remakes, which becomes an allegory for both her life and the love story that frames the journey of longing for that which we have romanticized either in our imagining of the new or the cherishing of the old. No matter where we find ourselves within this push and pull though the truth remains that home is the places and people that we invest in and build together.
The Stories of my Life 