OSCARS 2020: My Thoughts and Predictions

This is why making space for conversation about film is important, and one of the best things about the Oscars is the rare opportunity to do that collectively.

And there is value, as the hosts of the Letterboxd podcast point out, to the way in which the Oscars, as a collective venture,  can be a sort of time stamp that allows us to look back and remember those larger stories and context that gave shape to a given year, be it fear, struggle, joy or celebration. This is what makes the Oscars worthwhile.

With that in mind, what I would like to do now is walk through what I perceive to be the major storylines that are giving shape to the year that was 2019, and then offer my humble (read: not professional) picks for each category based on who I want to win, who I think will win, and who to watch out for.

THE STORYLINES
What happened to the diversity?
It wasn’t that long ago that the Oscars came under widespread scrutiny for a serious lack of representation. The knock on the Academy (the voting body) is that it is made up of mostly older white males and that they tend to vote for older white males in the above the line categories. If you are of any other age, ethnicity, color or sex, there is a good chance you will face an uphill battle in getting your film nominated, let alone seeing it have a chance to win.

And so when the tagline #oscarssowhite started to take over social media, they were forced to step up and make some changes. Which is of course how reform works. The Academy broadened their voting body by bringing in a greater diversity of members, and fell back on recently incorporated ideas such as increasing the number of films that are able to be nominated in the Best Picture category along with bringing in what is known as the preferential ballot. These things were seen as opportunities that could help foster more inclusion and diversity down the road.

Which makes the fact that all but three of the films from 2019 nominated for Best Picture were made by older, white males that much more egregious, with Greta Gerwig’s absence in the Director category even further stealing from Little Womens opportunity to seriously contend. Of those three, Bong Joon Ho is South Korean, Taika Waititi is a New Zealander and Gerwig is the lone female representative.

Enter story #2…. The Little International Film That Could.
As happens in every Oscar season, the race might technically begin in January, but it doesn’t really begin until October. October/November is seen as that sweet spot that studios tend to covet, where they are able to release their films early enough to generate buzz and create conversation but not so early as to end up being forgotten or neglected.

What made things more interesting this year is a shortened season. With the awards happening at the beginning of February as opposed to March, it made it that much harder for studios to get their films into the hands of voters, let alone for those following awards season to be able to predict and find clear frontrunners and stories to latch on to in their prognosticating.

Which makes the sudden and seemingly unstoppable emergence of Parasite as a serious awards contender that much more surprising. If it manages to do what many once thought impossible and take home both International and Best Picture (a real possibility), it will have managed to outpaced early favorites The Irishman and Marriage Story, the later frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and all the last minute noise of 1917.

In a year dominated by old white males, a win for Parasite would be considered by many to be a true victory for diversity and a boon for smaller studios, being the first time an International feature has won at the Oscars.

Because (Story #3), oh that money…
There has been no lack of ink spent on detailing the problem of overspending on Oscar campaigns this year. The numbers from Netflix, which has demonstrated a real interest in trying to break into and dominate the awards season fold over the last two years, were astronomical, reportedly topping their record 60 million last year by spending over 100 million this year (they dispute that number, downplaying it to 70 million, but it is worthwhile pointing out that they also disputed the 60 million last year, claiming it to be 30 million less than what it actually was).

More than just a matter of dollars, this translated into a record number of films from Netflix that were pushed into the fold, and translated into incredibly luxurious screening packages and illustrious perks meant to woo people with the excitement of a once in a lifetime trip or opportunity.

Now, it is not unheard of for studios to try and woo voters. The big studios have long been in the game of investing in their films in ways that will grab voters attention. But there is a real difference between the way this used to happen, on more equal ground, and the way things are trending now, where big money is about to outplay the smaller players.

When big dollars are at play, the ones who hurt the most are the smaller players, and they often hurt in ways that are less visible. So while Neon has managed to unearth a bonafide hit in Parasite that could very well go on to win a lot of awards on Sunday, the larger reality for studios like Neon and A24, among many others, is that the benefit of Oscar season is about more than just the winners. It is about the chance to be represented and the ability to shine a spotlight on their creatives. An unfair playing field puts a real burden on these studios in an already trying landscape.

For my money, what the Oscars really need is campaign reform, a way to ensure that all the players have a chance to be represented on equal ground. For what it’s worth, reform also needs to reach into how this voting happens, finding ways to ensure that votes are not being unfairly bought and that voters are actually watching the films they nominate and vote for.

And if you have never engaged closely with the Oscars before or have never been interested in how voting works, here is an article that explains the voting system fairly clearly:
https://collider.com/how-best-picture-oscar-voting-works/

There are of course many more storylines weaving through the above and below the line categories and through all of the different awards shows that happen throughout the season, all of which should make Sunday interesting in its own right. It has been pointed out that the crop of Best Picture nominees this year happens to hold the highest collective rating since 1976, so there are lots of great films to be excited about. But one last thing to note as I move into my personal predictions- all of these categories are interconnected, and therefore trying to string together the different stories and different reasons for my personal picks is dependent on how I see the cards falling across different categories.

A very small example: if they award one film in the Directing category, chances are greater that they will try and represent a different film in Best Picture. Below the line categories also tend to impact above the line categories, often predicting where the preference will fall in the biggest categories depending on who has momentum, who they might feel still needs to be recognized, and what is in competition.

Which is all to say, trying to predict winners is dang near impossible, because a single category can send multiple ones spiralling in opposite directions in a snowball effect.

Nevertheless, to predict is to take part in the fun, so choosing most but not all of the categories to weight in on (keeping mostly to above the line ones), here are my thoughts on the likely and hopeful winners and who to watch out for this coming Sunday 🙂

MY OSCAR PREDICTIONS

ORIGINAL SCORE
“1917,” Thomas Newman
“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams

Should Win: Joker
Will Win: 1917
Watch out for: Joker

This really is a two horse race. There is a world where Joker, the film with the most amount of nominations on the night, is a slam dunk to win this award. I have a funny feeling though that the love for 1917 might carry it through the night, with this being one of the smaller categories it will steal. With these two soundtracks being neck and neck, my guess is Newman will prevail over my preferred choice of Guonadottir.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“American Factory”

“The Edge of Democracy”

“Honeyland”

“For Sama”

“The Cave”

Should Win: For Sama
Will Win: For Sama
Watch Out for: American Factory

This is one of those categories I’m rolling the dice on, because all the storylines seem to suggest that American Factory is the film to beat, and by a long shot. But I just can’t shake this feeling that For Sama, a Documentary that I’ve also heard lots of insiders suggest is the best documentary outside of Apollo 11, which somehow was left off this list (a head scratcher up there with last years Wont You Be My Neighbor).

If For Sama wins I will probably be doing a jig in my living room. It is an exceptional and important work, and beyond that a true achievement that deserves all the praise. American Factory might seem like the better fit with its political emphasis, but For Sama is by and large the most deserving.

DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”

Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite”

Sam Mendes, “1917”

Todd Phillips, “Joker”

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino/Bong Joon Ho
Will Win: Sam Mendes
Watch Out For: Quentin Tarantino

When it comes down to it, this is what will ultimately decide the fate of the Best Picture winner. If Sam Mendes gets his name called here, look out for Parasite to win the big one. If Tarantino or Bong Joon Ho win here, well then things just got a whole lot more interesting, especially in retrospect.

I will say this though. My gut says this and Best Picture are in a real battle to position Bong Joon Ho or Sam Mendes head to head, giving this to one and BP to the other. With that said, I am not counting Tarantino out by any means. I do think they will reward his film in other categories, but Once Upon a Time In Hollywood was once upon a time the frontrunner, and a good campaign could just as easily turn this into an unexpected dark horse, maybe even going so far as to gain a Best Picture win.